Bold ‘08 Predictions!
Hi, everybody, and sorry for the prolonged absence: first I took a vacation (back in December), immediately followed by a second vacation (which lasted into January), after which my work schedule got hectic (like, right after Vacation #2), then I had to babysit a 4-year-old for 27 hours (necessitating an eventual third vacation, whenever I can afford it), and now I’m dog-sitting for the next three weeks. Overall, 2007 has been exhausting.
If you didn’t notice I’d vanished, well, how blissful for you. And if you did notice, but failed to say anything? Shame on you. I depend on my six regular readers to justify my existence, and you thoroughly failed me. More importantly, folks, you failed yourself. Except for Yelena, who called to complain. (Though, in reality, she was calling for my permission to dress as Teri Shiavo for a costume party. Permission granted.).
Anyway, I’ve been mulling over a few topics, and right before I started writing a puff post about “American Idol,” I had this strange idea; it struck me while I was washing the dishes, and the more I thought about it, the better it sounded. Now, just give me a moment to pop over to CNN.com to check on something …
… and I’m back. Okay, ready for this? Here’s my big ‘08 prediction:
I don’t think Hillary’s running for President.
Now, I don’t know anything you don’t — I don’t have any D.C. connections, nor do I have access to any privileged information. I read the paper every day, and casually glance at CNN at the gym; beyond that, this is just me speaking. So, if it turns out I’m wrong, we can just forget I ever said anything. But if I’m right? Someone should throw some money my way.
Here’s my theory:
On Tuesday, Barack Obama announced he’ll be running for President; actually, he announced that he’ll be announcing that much in February, but he did officially establish a Presidential committee. Not a huge surprise, I don’t think, but now it’s done and done, and everyone’s turning their eyes to Hillary Clinton. Will she? Won’t she? Because, as far as America’s concerned (even the Republicans, who’re watching this with some measure of interest, I have to imagine), it’s a horse race between these two candidates.
And why not? Who else is running? Thus far, we’ve got Joe Biden, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, former Governor Tom Vilsack, and Kucinich. Kerry might throw his hat back in the ring, and Bill Richardson — of New Mexico — is thinking it over. What’s wrong with these people? Well, (1) I like Biden — a lot, actually — but he’ll never get the publicity, coming from Delaware. I thought Iraq would be his time to shine, especially when the Dems took the Senate, but he never stepped up; (2) Dodd and Vilsack won’t have the scratch to last through the primaries; (3) Bill Richardson had his big moment giving an official response to Bush’s State of the Union, and still no one remembers what he looks like.
(4) Kucinich? Really?
As for Kerry and Edwards, America hates a loser. Seriously, look at Al Gore: he’s come back as far as he can with An Inconvenient Truth (a movie you definitely should see — because, wherever you live, the weather’s gone crazy in your part of the world, and not just “warmer than this time last year” crazy; like, “does it usually rain blood in January?” crazy), and he’ll still never win another public election. Kerry’s done, too, and most of the stink of losing’s on him — Edwards might have a second life as VP (actually, a perfect match for Hillary, if she ran, which she won’t, be not so good for Obama). That’s it.
Hillary or Obama — and you can bet the farm they’re not sharing a ticket. Hey, I’ll even be the one to say it: if America’s ready for either a black president, or a female president (and I hope it is), America’s sure not ready to elevate both to the first and second in command, respectively. I don’t see Obama playing second fiddle (given his rise through the ranks, it would castrate his career), and Hillary’s already been there, done that: it was called First Lady. Not happening again.
So, having said all the above, why do I still think Hillary won’t run? Because I think she knows she’ll lose — and I think she knows that whoever wins the Democratic nomination will win the White House, which means whoever loses gets the Gore/Kerry stink all over her nice shoes. See, why would the Republicans even want to win in ‘08? Whoever inherits the White House inherits Iraq — sweet bargain, there. Also, any Republican running with the support of the current administration has to answer for Bush’s tremendous lack of popularity, whereas any Republican running alone — freed up to shit on any decision made in the past seven years — is out in the cold.
Why not just wait for a Dem to win, take on an international situation that can’t possibly be resolved in four years — not to mention the blowback of all Bush’s tax cuts and social aid reach-arounds — and get run out of office in ‘12? By then, they’ll have revived Rove’s corpse, and should be ready to mount a comeback, aiming for the Congress and Senate in ‘10.
(Am I blowing your mind? Sorry — didn’t mean to blow your mind.)
So, it finally comes down to why I think Hillary can’t beat Obama in a two-man (pardon the expression) race, and it’s this little formula:
Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush-Clinton.
That timeline would span more than twenty years of American leadership, from 1988 through 2012. And if that doesn’t strike you as creepy in the least, then you’re not hearing me right: for 24 years, nearly the span of one generation, two families (who’re getting quite chummy, by the way) will have had stewardship of the United States of America. That’s going to come up during a debate, and it’s going to stick.
There’s more to it, of course: Obama’s young, he reminds people of Kennedy, he heals lepers with the laying of hands, his dick is four inches thick — he’s a demigod. And something embarrassing will come up, but he’ll embrace it, and we’ll love him all the more for being human. I mean, who do you think Bill wants to campaign for? His wife? Or Barack? Precisely.
Let’s just wait and see. Like I said, I’m not privy to any cherry-picked information, just working with the facts available to me. If I’m wrong, it’s easy enough to forget this post.
But if I’m right, I better get paid.
