Fantasy Draft Tips, pt. II
So, what’s the deal? I promise to start writing more regularly, then flitter off into the ether? Well, I’ll tell you what: it takes a while to generate all these spreadsheets:
Catchers.pdf
1B.pdf
2B.pdf
3B.pdf
SS.pdf
OF1.pdf
OF2.pdf
That right: out of the goodness of my heart (or manic, uncontrollable impulses), I’m willing to provide easy-to-download spreadsheets for all the childrens. Of course, they’re in pdf format, so you can’t sort or alter the fields; and I didn’t get around to pitchers this weekend; and — while the typical scoring categories are represented — I’ve neglected erstwhile stats, like a batter’s K/BB ratio … but I haven’t received your generous, albeit anonymous, donation yet, so my best effort is all you’re afforded.
Some things to mention: the first line of a batter’s statistics reflect his production last season (for Sheffield, who’s coming back big, I substituted his ‘05 numbers); the second line — bold and italicized — is his projected output for 2007, courtesy of ESPN. Now, I consider many of these projections unnecessarily conservative (I mean, this is fantasy baseball, not the stock market), so take it with a grain of salt. I like to have some sense of what the “experts” think, even if it’s a mirror reflection of last year.
If you’re participating in a draft “hosted” by an internet provider — like Yahoo!, or Sportsline — these spreadsheets probably aren’t of much worth to you; during your draft, you’ll be able to access the very same numbers in another browser window, and it won’t be hard to keep track of whom you’ve already selected, who else has been picked, and who remains. (But, I don’t know, maybe you can print this out and study it on the subway. And if you notice someone reading over your shoulder, just write “Corey Lidle — big ‘07?” in the margin, and see how s/he responds. Ghouls.)
But if you’re in for a live live draft — as I am, this Sunday in Philly — you need all the paperwork you can get your mits on (see the joke I made!). By the third hour, your brain’s going to be mush, you’ll be asking yourself which Marlins pitcher is due for imminent surgery (Josh Johnson, but Anibal Sanchez might as well drive him to the clinic), and you’ll start questioning the logic of drinking at 10AM. For you, these might actually prove helpful. I’ll do my very best to provide material on pitchers by the end of the week, but no promises.
Anyhow, having completed the grunt work, I’ll hazard a few more paragraphs of analysis. So, okay, you’ve got a list of the top batters, and you know where they’re eligible — but how do you rank the best of the best? Howard, Ortiz, and Pujols were certainly the most prodigious sluggers last year, but that’s ranking them in terms of home run totals (58, 54, 49); consider that Pujols had 30-40 fewer at-bats, and it’s almost a dead heat. All three have 1B eligibility, so … what?
I would consider these numbers: 1.84, 1.02, and 0.60 — that’s their ‘06 K/BB ratio, in reverse order. Pujols only recorded 50 Ks to 92 BBs — which is to say, when a pitcher threw junk, he didn’t swing. Sounds like a pretty simply concept, but then you have to consider that (a) most batters do swing at junk, as evidenced by the fact that most batters record well over 100 Ks in a season, and (b) when these three guys swing at good pitches? They hit the ball very, very far.
Ortiz clocks in at 1.02 — which is to say, he draws about as many walks as he does Ks; again, a pretty sharp ratio. But Howard, he swung through (or stared at) 181 strike threes, while only managing 108 walks. Of course, he’s young, and he’ll only get better at distinguishing good pitches from the bad, and anticipating what’s coming, depending on the situation — but that might be another few years away. In the meantime, I’m looking for batters with a near 1:1 K/BB ratio. Taking a slightly less extreme example, Andruw Jones hit 41 home runs in ‘06, while Adam Dunn managed 40; their respective K/BB ratios are 0.65 and 0.58. If I had to bet on who will hit more this season, I’d pick Andruw. Or Druw, as Chone likes to call him.
Like I said, I didn’t include batters’ Ks and BBs in the above spreadsheets, so you’ll have to do the research yourself. It might make a rather insiginificant difference, or it might make a great difference — it’s all a question of which of your decisions the numbers influence, and what round that affects. Jones and Dunn — or Konerko and Sexson, 35/34 but 0.58/0.42 — can greatly determine the effectiveness of your team; you don’t have to flip a coin to make an intelligent decision as to which is for the better.
If I do manage a post about pitchers, I’ll continue down this path with three equally valuable ratios: K/9, K/BB, and HR/9 — but that’s for another day. In the meantime, good luck with your own research. Oh, and if you’re in my public league, and you gave me shit for that Frank Thomas/K-Rod trade? I just want to say (a) sour grapes, (b) he offered the trade to me, so I can hardly be blamed, and (c) there’s a 50/50 chance that your growth spurt isn’t just late — its a hoax. Welcome to my world, shortie.
