Fantasy Draft Tips, pt. III
Yesterday I mentioned a disputed trade in one of the public leagues I’ve joined (I’m actually participating in three open leagues — the drafts are like spring training, opportunity to stretch my legs against lesser competition, even while a vein on Lis’s forehead starts to pulse furiously) — Frank Thomas for Francisco Rodriguez. Well, okay, it was pretty lop-sided. Here’s how it transpired:
In the 20th round of the draft, when everyone was getting naked and making inappropriate decisions, I noticed Thomas was still available; even after a resurgent year with Oakland, he hasn’t been getting much attention lately — most likely ’cause he was born during the Summer of Love. But who says age defines the man? I say, he’s batting between Wells and Glaus — if he was good for 39 dingers last season, he can punch out 35 in Toronto, easy. The Big Everything Hurts in the 20th? A steal.
Unfortunately, I’d already yoinked Travis Hafner in the 1st Round. Since neither of these lugs owns a glove — i.e., neither boasts position eligibility, rendering them de facto Utility players — I couldn’t start both at the same time. Still, someone had to want Thomas, right?
All I did was post a message, stating his availability — immediately prompting this offer: Thomas for K-Rod. Clearly, an awful exchange — whereas Thomas did hit 39 home runs last season … did I mention that’s his precise age? Rodriguez has averaged 46.5 saves for the past two years, and can easily be considered a top-5 closer. (A disgruntled league member pointed out I was upgrading a 20th Round pick for a 5th Round pick. And? Economy smells like disenfranchised people.) There’s really no two ways about it: I suckered this kid. But that’s what you get tussling with adults, Billy.
It puts me in mind of my first fantasy season; desperate for saves, I swapped Bernie Williams (who, I believe, finished ‘02 batting over .330) for Juan Acevedo. I even offered the trade. For the next few years, whenever a new manager joined the league, he’d be warned against boneheaded deals — and told the amusing, cautionary tale of Acevedo-for-Williams … before everyone realized I was still sitting there. Assholes. Hey, I wonder how Acevedo’s doing today. Maybe after I finish lunch, I’ll walk down to the corner and buy some oranges from him.
Aaaanyway, I promised spreadsheets for pitchers, didn’t I? Here are two pages to cover just about anyone who started 20+ games last season:
Also, as promised, I’ll spend a few minutes offering more detailed analysis. Now, I’ve recorded wins, loses, Ks, WHIP, etc.; clearly, winning is good, and the more Ks the better — but a low WHIP (Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched) is equally important. Essentially, a WHIP reflects how many batters a pitcher allowed on-base whenever he took the mound. Whether it was via a walk or a hit, you want his WHIP to hover around 1.0. Anything greater than that, and he had a runner in scoring position every inning — which is either reflected in his hefty ERA (Jon Garland: 4.51 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), or it damn well should be (Jason Jennings: 3.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).
I’ve also included the following ratios: HR/9, K/9, and K/BB. The logic is simple — it’s preferable that a pitcher allow fewer home runs over the course of a game (<1), average more strikeouts (>6), and generally strike out more batters than he walks (>2).
Taking that into consideration, it’s no surprise that Johan Santana boasted 0.9 HR/9, 9.5 K/9, and 5.2 K/BB for 2006 — less than a homer per nine, better than a K per inning, and better than a 5:1 K/BB ratio. Now, why would that be important? We already know Santana’s an ace among aces — his 19 wins, sub-3.00 ERA, and annual 200+ Ks pretty much state that outright. Ah, but what about Brett Myers and C.C. Sabathia?
As I said yesterday, ratios of this nature will help you late in your draft, when the difference between two position players seems minimal (at best). Myers and Sabathia each won 12 games last season; I’d actually give Myers the advantage, at a glance, given that he pitches in the National League. But compare these numbers:
1.3 HR/9; 8.6 K/9; 3.0 K/BB
0.8 HR/9; 8.1 K/9; 3.9 K/BB
The top line is Myers: while he did average slightly more Ks per nine, he also allowed nearly twice as many home runs as Sabathia, and had a worse K/BB ratio. Simply put, Myers made it more difficult for himself, giving up the long ball and laboring through extended innings. When you further account for Cleveland’s miserable bullpen — which cost Sabathia 2-5 wins, I’d guess — suddenly their 12 wins are not of equal value. I’d hazard that Myers is good for exactly 12 wins … but you could be looking at a bump of 17-19 for Sabathia, especially with Borowski closing for the Indians.
Plus, Sabathia’s K/BB ratio has improved from 1.9, to 2.6, to 3.9 since the 2004 season! Clearly, this guy’s learning to throw strikes — which means his K/9 will keep getting better, which means he’ll last deeper into games, which means fewer innings for the bullpen to savage. In this instance, the number of wins he managed in 2006 tells us significantly less about C.C. Sabathia than his ratios. So, me? I’m drafting him ahead of Dice-K, Randy Johnson, and Barry Zito.
Oh, and Myers … whooo’s also a wifebeater. Just saying.
